About this site

I was a Governing Board Member of the San Carlos School District, elected November 2007 and again in November 2011. This site was originally used for the purpose of communicating with school district constituents, however now it is used for surfacing ideas and expressing opinions on various subjects in education, politics, business, or otherwise.

Please note that any opinion express here is purely personal and does not necessarily reflect the position or opinion of anyone else or any organization with which I am, or have been, associated.

I will not accept anonymous comments, and all persons who post comments must have a valid e-mail address. Note that I reserve the right to edit, reject, or delete posts based on spelling, grammar, readability, or my judgment of what is appropriate discourse.

 

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Hindsight Bias and the Logical Fallacies in the Gun Debate

“Why wasn’t the Parkland shooter stopped by the FBI? They got a tip about him!” is a refrain we’re seeing a lot these days. It’s perhaps understandable, but it reminds us of the adage that “hindsight is 20/20” and more specifically illustrates what psychologists call hindsight bias, the idea that an event was predictable even [...]