Although not officially over, it looks like updates to the vote count have not been kind to Measure S. There was some glimmer of hope that late-counted votes would give us an extra percentage point and bring us over the 2/3 supermajority needed. However, the latest returns actually have that percentage going down. The latest results show the Yes vote is down to 65.1%, and it is basically near mathematically impossible for the measure to win. There are updated results to be posted tomorrow as well, but I don’t expect much of a change.
So, what went wrong? Do we really believe the citizens of San Carlos don’t support our schools? No, I don’t believe that. However, as essentially the only school measure in the Bay Area that didn’t do well, we must assume that “external factors” did not play a part in our loss. Meaning, it is unlikely due to the economy, voter turnout, other measures on the ballot, the length of the ballot, etc.
If I had to place a bet, I would say our loss was mostly based on a perceived lack of urgency in the community — most did not see an impending crisis our schools. This is a bit ironic, because our prudent management of reserves allowed us to avoid major cuts this year. So, the School Board was actually trying to get ahead of the problem BEFORE we had a crisis. Now we will likely face such a crisis in this budget cycle, as the State budget news only gets worse.
Perhaps due to that perceived lack of urgency (or the flip side, which is overconfidence that it would pass), I don’t think we energized the parents (and teachers) like we have done in past parcel tax elections. It’s not that the parents didn’t vote for it — I think they did — it’s more that we didn’t get enough volunteers getting the word out to non-parents in the community. Also, our ballot language didn’t express that level of urgency.
A second, albeit probably more minor, contributing factor was that the parcel tax was perpetual, and given we were alone in the Bay Area in having that, perhaps that made a difference for a handful of voters.
So, to be frank, cuts are likely for next year, and that may ironically trigger this sense of urgency and immediacy. Although it pains me to say that “fear sells,” maybe that’s what we really needed, and what we will need for a future measure. The School Board will now begin the discussion of if and when to place a new measure on the ballot. I encourage you to attend Board meetings and express your opinion.
